NFL second-half predictions for all 32 teams: Keep an eye on Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray

The first nine weeks of the 2023 NFL season have come and gone and only one thing is for sure: No one knows with certainty what will happen next.

But The Athletic’s beat writers challenge that notion, providing predictions for every NFL team as the second half of the season kicks off.

Kyler Murray will prove his worth: The deck is stacked against Murray. He’s returning from major knee surgery. He hasn’t played in nearly a year. He’s running a new offense. His offensive line is banged up. He lacks a strong supporting cast. And yet he’ll show enough explosiveness and maturity over the season’s final eight games to keep his place as Arizona’s franchise quarterback. This will allow GM Monti Ossenfort, with two first-round picks in the 2024 draft, to build around Murray (adding needed playmakers) instead of trading him, accelerating Arizona’s rebuild. — Doug Haller

Ready Player One. pic.twitter.com/5VqK0aqxo9

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) November 7, 2023

Desmond Ridder will start again: This week, Taylor Heinicke has a chance to shine against a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th in the league in yards allowed per play (5.4), but his play over his six-year career suggests there will be enough downs to go with the ups that coach Arthur Smith will be presented with an opportunity to go back to Ridder. And I think Smith wants to go back to Ridder because he believes Ridder has a higher ceiling. One week before benching the second-year quarterback, Smith said it was “toxic groupthink” that led to criticism of Ridder and praised his young quarterback’s development. — Josh Kendall

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Lamar Jackson will win his second NFL MVP award: With a league-leading completion percentage of 71.5, Jackson has never thrown the ball more accurately. He’s handled increased responsibilities at the line of scrimmage in Todd Monken’s offense, is making good decisions and is hurting teams with his arm and legs. His numbers don’t jump out at you, but he has been in total control. With an offensive line that is coming together nicely and a better grasp of what the Ravens do best offensively, Jackson is in a position to have a monster second half if he remains healthy. — Jeff Zrebiec

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The Bills will sneak into the playoffs with a 10-7 record: Although the Bengals game may have cast some doubt, the Bills showed signs of life on both offense and defense that could translate to better days ahead. The second half begins with a pair of winnable home games against the Broncos and Jets, and then they’ll need to find three wins out of their final six against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins. It’s a rough stretch, but Buffalo has thrived on the disrespect angle in the past. Now, with plenty of doubt surrounding the team, the Bills will likely make it their rallying cry for the rest of the year. — Joe Buscaglia

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The Panthers will not finish 1-16: I have long thought the Panthers would win two of three during this “dad bod” portion of the schedule (the soft middle). And they still have a chance — if they can find a way to beat … Tyson Bagent. The Bears’ rookie quarterback from Division II Shepherd University will start in place of the injured Justin Fields. And while Bagent will be looking to connect with former Panthers wideout DJ Moore, the guy I think might steal the revenge-game spotlight is running back D’Onta Foreman. Regardless of what happens in Chicago, there are a few more opportunities for wins for the Panthers, who haven’t been favored all season: one of the Tampa Bay games, maybe Tennessee on the road, Atlanta and Green Bay at home. But to be clear, my original 8-9 prediction is shot. — Joe Person

The Bears will retain coach Matt Eberflus: I believe general manager Ryan Poles will be allowed to hire another coach should he decide to dismiss Eberflus. But I also believe Poles believes everything he said about Eberflus last week. “Most teams fold, and they’re not folding,” Poles said. “I see a grown man that has leadership skills to get this thing out of the hole and into where it needs to be.” Continuity is a road less traveled by the Bears — and for once, maybe the Bears try to take it by sticking with Eberflus, knowing that his first year in charge was a teardown of Ryan Pace’s old roster. — Adam Jahns

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Tee Higgins will outgain Ja’Marr Chase the rest of the way: The Bengals offense turned around this season by feeding Chase, with his target rate rocketing to a career high. He has 697 receiving yards through Week 9. Higgins lands second on the team with 328. That might be about to change. More teams are going to focus all of their attention on stopping Chase. At that point, a healthy Higgins would be first in line to take advantage of a coverage imbalance. He’s also more likely to connect on deep shots down the field anyway. In 2021 when the league reacted to Chase exploding on the scene with extra attention, Higgins averaged 92.3 yards per game over the final eight games. Chase will still be the focal point, but you can feel the Higgins surge arriving. — Paul Dehner Jr.

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Your Myles Garrett DPOY tickets might be good: Hopefully, you took my preseason advice and took Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year at +650 when I recommended it in September. It’s +200 now on BetMGM. That’s not a full victory lap because he hasn’t won it yet. And part of me thinks that, because the Cowboys play the TV spotlight game every other week, current favorite Micah Parsons might end up winning. Garrett is tied for second in the NFL with 9 1/2 sacks, and I’m confident he’ll get to 20. If the Browns keep winning, the proper attention should come. — Zac Jackson

Jalen Tolbert will solidify himself as the No. 3 receiver: Against the Rams in Week 8, Tolbert had nearly twice as many snaps on third downs as Michael Gallup. Against the Eagles, that number was basically equal and Gallup’s edge in usage in 11 personnel was similar to Tolbert, with Gallup taking 28 snaps in 11 personnel and Tolbert taking 23 snaps in the three-wide receiver set. If Tolbert’s playing time continues to rise at the same time that Gallup’s diminishes, the usage and production on the field will speak for itself. Tolbert is coming off of a career-high five targets against the Eagles. — Saad Yousuf

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Russell Wilson will finish the season as the starting QB: I’m not ready to predict whether Wilson will be Denver’s starting quarterback in 2024. There are simply too many variables clouding the outlook. What I do believe is that Sean Payton has been largely pleased with how Wilson has handled the role this season, and No. 3 will remain the starter unless things completely unravel. He is still the quarterback who gives this team its best chance to win. The real question is whether Wilson can show enough growth in his grasp of Payton’s scheme during the second half of the season to prove he’s still Denver’s best option next season. — Nick Kosmider

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Dan Campbell will win Coach of the Year: It’s a stacked race for Coach of the Year. Doug Pederson has the Jaguars at 6-2, John Harbaugh continues to win in Baltimore and Mike McDaniel, Pete Carroll, Nick Sirianni, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan should remain in the mix with winning teams. But if the Lions accomplish their goals this season, it’ll be hard not to hand the award to Campbell. In his third season, he has the Lions at 6-2, near the top of the NFC standings and staring down the franchise’s first division title in 30 years. He’d have the record and the narrative on his side. That’s a powerful combo. — Colton Pouncy

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Jordan Love will earn a contract extension: Love hasn’t yet done enough to earn an extension, something that might’ve seemed more plausible after his first two games of the season saw him throw six touchdowns and no interceptions. Love, in part because of his own deficiencies and partly because of a lackluster supporting cast, has not looked great for the majority of the six games that have followed. Green Bay’s second-half schedule is tougher, but as the youth around him gains more experience, Love should play much better. Well enough, even, that the Packers won’t be in a position to draft a top quarterback and will instead try to sign Love to a relatively cheap long-term extension. — Matt Schneidman

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C.J. Stroud will win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a playoff chase: Stroud has impressed and seems to be getting better each week. Look for the 2023 No. 2 pick to continue to build on his record-setting start — and for the Texans (4-4) to flirt with a playoff berth. They still have some tough tests ahead, like the Bengals and Jaguars. But they have very winnable divisional games, too. The Texans might fall just short of earning a wild-card berth, but they certainly will make things interesting for others. — Mike Jones

Shaq Leonard will play his last game for the Colts: Leonard and the Colts parting ways seemed unfathomable in 2021 when Leonard earned his third first-team All-Pro selection. However, two years and two back surgeries later, he has hardly been the same player. Leonard is healthy now but has taken on a significantly diminished role and has been vocal about his frustrations with his limited playing time. The 28-year-old has three years and $46.8 million left on his contract, but the Colts could release him after the season to save $12.1 million in cap space with just an $8 million cap hit in 2024. Leonard hasn’t spoken about his future with the franchise yet, but this feels like the beginning of the end. — James Boyd

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The Jaguars will finish as the AFC’s No. 2 seed: The Jaguars will win 13 games, which won’t be easy with the quality of the opponents (49ers, Bengals, Browns, Ravens) remaining on their schedule. But the AFC is a gauntlet for everyone at the top of the standings. The Jaguars have won five consecutive games and are playing much better over the past month. Trevor Lawrence’s numbers aren’t there for MVP consideration, but he’ll cement himself as a favorite for 2024. — Jeff Howe

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The Chiefs won’t host the AFC Championship Game: For the first time in six years, the conference title game will not take place in Kansas City. Sorry, Chiefs fans, but at some point, the team will play a road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era. During Mahomes’ six years as the Chiefs’ leading man, this statistic might be the most remarkable: All 10 of his non-Super Bowl postseason games have been at Arrowhead. The Chiefs still have difficult regular-season games to come against the Eagles, Bills, Bengals and Chargers. If the Chiefs fall in two of those, the Ravens, who also are 7-2 and have an impressive defense, could rise to the top spot. — Nate Taylor

Antonio Pierce won’t do enough to become the full-time head coach: The last time the Raiders had an interim head coach, they finished the season 10-7, made the playoffs and went down to the wire on the road against the Bengals, who reached the Super Bowl. The success came amid an unprecedented run of off-the-field issues. The coach responsible for holding it all together, Rich Bisaccia, still didn’t get the full-time head-coaching job after the season. With that in mind, it’s hard to see Pierce doing enough to earn the full-time gig with the Raiders, barring a deep playoff run. — Tashan Reed

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Tuli Tuipulotu will win Defensive Rookie of the Year: Tuipulotu had two more sacks in Monday night’s win over the Jets and has four on the season. He has already proved himself as a slam-dunk second-round draft pick. He is impacting games as a pass rusher and run defender. By the end of the season, Tuipulotu has a strong chance of distancing himself as the best defensive player in his class. Tuipulotu is fifth in BetMGM’s DROY odds, trailing Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter, Seahawks corner Devon Witherspoon, Lions safety Brian Branch and Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. He should move up that board in the coming weeks. — Daniel Popper 

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Puka Nacua will finish second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting behind C.J. Stroud: While production has dipped in the Rams’ last two losses, Nacua still has 63 catches for 827 yards through nine games. Along with Nacua, the Rams seem to have found several rookies who will be big parts of their 2024-’25 plans post-reset. Nacua, outside linebacker Byron Young, left guard Steve Avila, defensive tackle Kobie Turner and punter Ethan Evans are so far “hits” in their 14-member draft class and we should add undrafted free-agent long snapper Alex Ward to that group as well. — Jourdan Rodrigue

The Dolphins will finally beat a contender: The Dolphins haven’t beaten a team with a plus-.500 record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season. They’re 0-6 since. They could end that streak in a couple of weeks against the Jets, but only if the Jets beat the Raiders on Sunday night. Still, with all due respect to Zach Wilson and company, that won’t prove much. What will cement the Dolphins as legitimate contenders is when they beat the Cowboys on Christmas Eve in front of a national audience. Miami’s defense is starting to figure things out under new coordinator Vic Fangio. And while the Cowboys defense will be a tough test, if the Dolphins offensive line is close to healthy, Miami will put up enough points to win and finally shut down the narrative of not being able to beat good teams. — Jim Ayello

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Danielle Hunter’s performance will make his contract situation even more difficult: Defensive coordinator Brian Flores spent a couple of minutes Tuesday gushing about Hunter. The praise spoke to a looming concern. Hunter’s contract is up after this season, and his restructured deal features verbiage that removes the possibility of the franchise tag. Given Hunter’s performance — he leads the NFL with 10 sacks, ranks 19th among edge rushers in pressures (35) and is third in defensive stops (30) — the 29-year-old is in for a hefty payday. While the Vikings are sorting out their quarterback situation and Justin Jefferson’s expected extension, will they have the money to keep Hunter? — Alec Lewis

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Mac Jones’ struggles will continue: I thought Jones might get better throughout the season as he got more comfortable with a third offensive coordinator in three years and with new faces at receiver. But we’re nine weeks in, and he’s not any better than he was at the outset. Jones is who he is at this point, and expecting drastic change is probably foolish. He’ll end the season ranked in the bottom 10 of almost every meaningful quarterback statistic. And that will prompt some meaningful discussions about whether it’s worth keeping Jones as the starting quarterback in 2024, even if his contract is still affordable. — Chad Graff

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The Saints will win the NFC South: The Saints will win the NFC South, as expected, with a 9-8 record. But many Who Dats will be unsatisfied because the team will lack consistency and fans will feel like they’re “stuck” with Dennis Allen as the head coach. A case in point came in Week 9. The Saints finished plus-five in the turnover margin and were fortunate to win by a touchdown against Tyson Bagent and the Bears. The Saints should be better than their record given the talent on the roster. But at least there will be (at least) one playoff game. — Larry Holder

The Giants will finish with a top-two draft pick and things will get … interesting: The 2-7 Giants are currently slated to pick fourth in the 2024 draft. However, according to Austin Mock’s projection model, the Giants will end up securing the No. 1 pick. Given how disastrously the season has gone and with injuries mounting, it’s in the Giants’ best interest to tank. Ending up with the top pick is a huge asset for a team, either to trade back for a haul like the Bears did last year or to use the pick on a franchise-changing player. If the Giants choose door No. 2, that’s where things get interesting. First, they’d likely have to decide which of the top-tier quarterback prospects they prefer (likely USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye). Second, that decision would end Daniel Jones’ tenure as the team’s franchise QB — one year after he signed a $160 million extension. — Charlotte Carroll 

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Zach Wilson will be benched: Just like last year, the Jets were able to tread water for about half the season with Wilson at quarterback. But also just like last year, it became clear again after the bye that this team (4-4) is going nowhere, even with that defense. Wilson ranks last among 36 qualifying QBs in EPA per dropback. He has eight fumbles in the last five games. He’s back to missing easy throws in the flat and open throws down the field, and he buckles under pressure. If Wilson is bad against the Raiders in Week 10 — especially if the Jets lose — expect him to be benched for Tim Boyle. — Zack Rosenblatt

A.J. Brown will break the franchise’s receptions and yardage records: Brown has 67 catches for 1,005 receiving yards through nine games. That puts him on pace to break the franchise’s single-season records in both categories, which includes the yardage mark he set himself last season (1,496). Brown could surpass 1,500 yards as soon as mid-December. If not for Tyreek Hill, who, at 1,076 yards, is on pace to become the NFL’s first-ever 2,000-yard receiver, Brown could secure the NFL’s single-season record, too. Calvin Johnson owns the top spot with 1,964 yards in 2012. Brown must average over six catches a game over the final eight to pass Zach Ertz’s franchise record of 116 receptions. Only four other players have more targets than Brown (92), and he has only caught fewer than six passes in a game once this season. — Brooks Kubena

T.J. Watt will break the sack record: With 9 1/2 sacks through eight games, Watt is on pace for 20. The single-season record is 22 1/2, which Michael Strahan and Watt share. The Steelers don’t play a terrible offensive line the rest of the way (i.e., no Giants or Commanders on the schedule). But what about the Bengals, Browns and Ravens? Watt has 39 of his 87 career sacks against those teams, and he has four games remaining against that trio. He will continue to need support from Alex Highsmith and move around the line more. If the Steelers somehow play with more leads late in games, 23 sacks isn’t out of the question. — Mark Kaboly

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Christian McCaffrey will win the rushing title: McCaffrey leads the league with 652 yards, followed by Indianapolis’ Zack Moss (615) and Philadelphia’s D’Andre Swift (614). Still, McCaffrey’s rushing output has dropped precipitously. He averaged nearly 115 yards per game over the first four weeks but averaged only 48 yards per game over the four weeks before the bye. Trent Williams’ return from injury, combined with the infusion of energy the bye week will provide, should reignite the run game. And that should give McCaffrey the juice to stave off his hard-charging challengers for the rushing title. — David Lombardi

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Devon Witherspoon will win Defensive Rookie of the Year: Witherspoon, the No. 5 pick in the draft, has the second-best odds (+300) behind Philadelphia defensive tackle Jalen Carter (-300). He was the NFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 4 and the Defensive Rookie of the Month in October. He has 39 total tackles, two sacks, a pick six and nine passes defensed, which leads all rookies and is tied for sixth among all defenders. Witherspoon’s ability to play outside cornerback and slide over to nickel will work in his favor. Whereas defensive linemen can be double-teamed and outside cornerbacks can be avoided (unless they’re in man-heavy schemes), it’s hard to keep Witherspoon away from the ball. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

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Kyle Trask will get his first NFL start: The Bucs have bigger problems than Baker Mayfield, but Trask will get his first NFL start. It may not necessarily be a reflection of Mayfield’s performance as much as a reflection of the state of the team. Trask is in his third season and has thrown three passes. The Bucs need to find out what they have in him before they can assess whether or not they need to use a high draft pick on another quarterback. The more they lose, the more sense it makes to look to 2024. — Dan Pompei

Ryan Tannehill will start another game: And that won’t be performance-related, but the sad reality for rookie Will Levis is that he’s getting his NFL career going behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Nicholas Petit-Frere’s shoulder injury weakens the depth, and the big offseason signing — left tackle Andre Dillard — has been a colossal failure. Levis has been impressive standing in against the rush and delivering passes, but the hits are going to keep coming and the possibility of an injury that will cost him some time is high. Just ask Tannehill, who has been bludgeoned and knocked out the past two seasons after avoiding injury in his first three seasons in Tennessee. — Joe Rexrode

Sam Howell will be QB1 in 2024: Howell’s case grows seemingly every week. After back-to-back 300-yard passing games, he ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (behind only Tua Tagovailoa), is tied for seventh in touchdown passes and is 14th in completion percentage. He’s also tied for the league lead with nine interceptions, and nobody is close with 44 sacks, but he’s made progress in that area over the last two weeks. If Howell continues to progress, he will likely become the main attraction for a potential new head coach or GM if owner Josh Harris decides to clean house. — Ben Standig

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(Top photos, L to R, of Lamar Jackson, Dan Campbell and Kyler Murray: Andy Lyons, Amy Lemus / NurPhoto and Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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